Monday, September 28, 2020

DWTS Season 29 - Historical Placements

This Season 29 analysis assesses the relative strength of Dancing with the Stars contestants based on historical comparisons. It includes an additional factor to account for judges deciding the eliminations. Age and height are based on best available Internet data. Note that these results are not meant to be predictive.

Job-age comparison groups for each star are listed below. "Job" categories derive from ABC's defunct "Cast DWTS" website. Age ranges are the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted). Past seasons' results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st through 12th place) to make them comparable regardless of cast size. Withdrawals, All-Star, and Athletes seasons are excluded.

Comparison groups are listed from strongest to weakest average.  (Scroll to view all groups):
 


Here's a summary of the Age-Job group averages, in clusters of strongest to weakest historical average placement. Red print indicates averages based on limited or adjusted comparison groups.




Here are the Pro Averages, from strongest to weakest. Red print indicates averages based on limited pro histories. For new pros Daniella and Brit, the listed average is that of five female pro debuts within the last 12 seasons (Emma, Tyne, Witney, Allison, Jenna).


Next are the Height group averages. For each star, the historical average for same gender height +/- 1 inch is shown from highest to lowest average placement.




Next are the weighted overall averages*, arranged in clusters from strongest to weakest. The "Place" column shows rounded averages to better represent places 1-12.  Please note that this chart displays automatic clustering by average round placement.

*Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.

Finally, the historical averages can be adjusted to account for judges deciding eliminations. To factor forthcoming deliberations into the overall averages, scores from the first two weeks serve as proxies for judges' relative preferences. (Total scores were scaled 1.0 to 12.0 for 1st to 12th place.) The weighted averages are shown below, with clusters listed from highest to lowest average placement.

Nev and Jeannie (highlighted in blue) are considered wildcards. Jeannie, because of Brandon's limited history, and because she's less well-known or current than other celebs with unestablished pros (Johnny, Nelly, Carole). Nev, because his top cluster ranking is due primarily to judges' scores. The judges will likely save him over other celebs, but he himself is less well-known with an uncertain fanbase. Would the judges save him repeatedly if necessary?

*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 31% Age-Job average, 25% Pro average, 25% scaled Scores, 19% Height average.

Notes / Comments:
First, a reminder that these are not predictions. Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short. The general expectation of cluster analysis is that stars are most likely to finish within their relative clusters, less likely to finish +/- 1 cluster away, and least likely to finish more than 1 cluster away.
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Monday, October 21, 2019

DWTS Season 28 - Historical Placements

This (belated) Season 28 analysis is meant to assess the relative strength of Dancing with the Stars contestants based on historical comparisons.It includes an additional factor to account for the new elimination procedure. Note that these are not meant to be predictive. Age and height are based on best available Internet data.

Job-age comparison groups for each star are listed below. "Job" categories derive from ABC's now defunct "Cast DWTS" website. Age ranges are typically the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted). Past seasons' results are scaled from 1-12 (to represent 1st through 12th place) so that they are comparable regardless of field size. Withdrawals, All-Star, and Athletes seasons are mostly excluded.

Comparison groups are listed from strongest to weakest average.  (Scroll to view all groups):


Notes: Age range was broadened for Mary, and age-job category broadened for Karamo and Sean, because of insufficient comparison..

Here's a summary of the age-job group averages, in clusters of strongest to weakest historical average placement. Red print indicates averages based on limited or adjusted comparison groups.



Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest. These averages include results from the Athletes season. Red print indicates averages based on limited pro histories. For new pro Pasha, the listed average is that of four male pro debuts within the last 10 seasons (Artem, Keo, Alan, Brandon).



Next are the height group averages. For each star, the historical average for same gender height +/- 1 inch is shown from highest to lowest average placement. Red text indicates guesstimated height for Sean, and +/- 3 inches to compensate insufficient comparisons for Lamar.


Next are the weighted overall averages*, arranged in clusters from strongest to weakest. The "Place" column shows rounded averages to better represent places 1-12.  Please note that this chart displays automatic clustering by average round placement. (A fuller consideration of automatic clustering can be found in this retrospective of Season 27 results.)

*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.


Finally, because season 28 introduced a new elimination process, I attempted to adjust these historical averages accordingly. To factor forthcoming judging deliberations into the overall averages, scores from the first two weeks are employed as proxies for judges' relative preferences. (Total scores were scaled 1.0 to 12.0 for 1st to 12th place.) The weighted averages are shown below, with clusters listed from highest to lowest average placement.

Kate and Mary (highlighted in blue) are considered wildcards because of their pros' limited histories.

*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 31% Age-Job average, 25% Pro average, 25% scaled Scores, 19% Height average.


Comments:
First, a reminder that these are not predictions. Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short. The general expectation of cluster analysis is that stars are most likely to finish within their relative clusters, less likely to finish +/- 1 cluster away, and least likely to finish more than 1 cluster away. With just three clusters, there should be relatively few surprises. As of this writing (heading into week 6 of the competition), the historical top cluster (historical top 4) has already avoided any possibility of finishing in the actual bottom cluster (actual bottom 3). Also, two of the historical bottom cluster have already been eliminated. At this point, the only historical deviation would be the remaining bottom cluster star placing in the top 4.
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Retrospective: DWTS Season 27 - Historical Comparisons

The results of Season 27 on Dancing with the Stars were unexpected in many ways, but not without historical precedence. In a preseason 27 analysis, I included the following note:

"Please note that this chart displays automatic clustering by average round placement."




I included that note because the clustering method was different than previously posted analyses. Previously, I had clustered groups based on spacing between overall averages, while avoiding single-entry clusters. Had the season 27 analysis been clustered as previously, there would have been three clusters, with a middle cluster of six contestants (Mary Lou Retton through Bobby Bones).

Three clusters are generally less interesting from an interpretive standpoint than four or five clusters. Large middle clusters are less interesting still. In this example, six of 13 contestants would have finished within one historical cluster no matter where they placed. The only "interesting" result would have been Nancy McKeon being eliminated much earlier than history would suggest.

Automatic clustering by rounding to the nearest whole placement produced a more interesting visual chart, but obscured the close spacing among the middle averages. In particular, Bobby Bones' historical average was within 1.0 placement of seven other contestants. The historical overreach of his (and Sharna's) final placement was primarily with respect to the top cluster of DeMarcus, Juan Pablo, and Nancy (and their respective partners).

The upside of the automatic clustering was that the apparent display of deviations from historical patterns matched public perceptions. The outcry over the season 27 results indicated that those results at least appeared unexpected and interesting, even if historically they were arguably less so.
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Monday, September 24, 2018

DWTS Season 27 - Historical Comparisons


This Season 27 analysis is similar to previous analyses meant to assess the relative strength of Dancing with the Stars contestants based on historical comparisons.  Note that these are not meant to be predictive.

Job-age comparison groups for each star are listed below.  "Job" categories derive from the defunct "Cast DWTS" game formerly on ABC's website.  Age ranges are typically the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted).  Past seasons' results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st place to 12th place) so that they are comparable regardless of field size.  Withdrawals, All-Star season, and Athletes season are excluded.

The comparison groups are listed from strongest average to weakest average.  (Scroll down to view all groups):


Notes: Age range was broadened for Nancy, Mary Lou, Bobby, Nikki, Alexis, and Danelle because of insufficient comparison. They were tightened for DeMarcus and Evanna because of excessive comparison.




Here's a summary of the above age-job group averages, arranged in ascending clusters of average placement.  Red print indicates averages based on limited or insufficient comparisons.  The "Place" column shows rounded averages that better represent places 1-12:



Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest.  The "Place" column shows rounded averages that better represent places 1-12.  Light print indicates substituted averages.  For 3rd season pros whose 2nd season was the abbreviated All Athletes, the substitute is the default expected average of 6.5.  For new pros, the substitute is the average result for same gender new pros from seasons 4-25.



Next are the height group averages, for same gender height +/- 1 inch.  (Guesstimated heights used for Joe and Bobby.)  The "Place" column shows rounded averages that better represent places 1-12:



Finally, here are the overall weighted* averages.  They are arranged in clusters of average placement, from strongest to weakest.  The "Place" column shows rounded averages that better represent places 1-12.  Please note that this chart displays automatic clustering by average round placement. 

Wildcards (highlighted in blue) are Danelle (physically challenged, but inspirational), Mary Lou and Nikki (insufficient age-job comparisons); and Tinashe, Alexis, Joe (newer pros). Personal note: Evanna with work-in-progress pro Keo might be considered wildcards.


*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.

Comments:
First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  That said, based on historical comparisons, stars within the same cluster tend to be most competitive with each other relative to the field.  Also, stars within one cluster tend to be more competitive with stars in adjacent clusters than with stars in further away clusters.  Those in the top cluster(s) are least likely to finish in the bottom cluster, and vice versa.
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Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Dance TV Generation - Ballroom / Latin

'94 Dancesport Cohort


 Dancing with the Stars, So You Think You Can Dance, Live to Dance, World of Dance...there's been no shortage of dance on TV this past decade.  This post reviews ballroom / Latin dancers born early-mid '90's (especially '93-'95) who began training pre-Dance TV, competed Junior & Youth age circuits during its rise and peak, and debuted on TV starting as kids.  The '94 Dancesport cohort bridged the preceding generation who unexpectedly benefited from TV; and subsequent generations who aspired to TV their entire dance lives.

'94 Dancesport Cohort in Junior Level 1

First, a preview: 2006 USA Nationals Junior I Finals (full results) with Brandon & Brittany (orange dress), Kiril & Natella (black dress w/ red bow), Cole & Anna (white shirt / pink dress), Austin & Liza (white shirt / blue dress), Landon & Vashti (tall blondes), Eugene & Meah (red dress). Most subsequently appeared on Dancing with the Stars or So You Think You Can Dance...




Early DWTS Appearances

Eugene & Meah were part of a 2007 Champion Kids Performance - video ➤
  • featuring Anthony Kinevsky & Natasha Shevchenko, Eugene Reznik & Solomeah Burstein, Jason Shmelnik & Helen Demetsky

Brandon & Brittany and Austin & Liza took part in the
2008 Season 6 Junior Competition - Good Morning America recap ➤
  • Austin Joson & Liza Lakovitsky - intro ➤
    • Prior appearance on PBS' America's Ballroom Challenge - video ➤
  • Brandon Armstrong & Brittany Cherry (overall winners) - intro ➤
    and final round:
  • also competed: Aaron Altman & Rashell Khalfin, Jaryd Farcon & Cara Abaya-campos, Aaron Krumer & Daniela Olevsky, Dmitriy Slobodskiy & Michelle Kaplansky
  • also scheduled: Kiril Kulish & Natella Devitskaya (did not appear)

'94 Dancesport Cohort in Junior Level 2

By 2009 Junior II Nationals (full results) there had been some re-partnering. Competitors include: Brandon & Lindsay, Vlad Kvartin & Maria, (white shirt / white dress), Austin & Gabriella (gold dress), and Landon & Vashti (tall ginger male).


Special DWTS Performances

Brandon and Brittany returned to DWTS in 2011 for a Season 10 
Mark Ballas Student Performance featuring:
  • Brandon Armstrong, Nick Bloxsom Carter, Brock Bodily, Tynan Hamilton, Trey Jackson
  • Lindsay Arnold, Tanisha Belnap, Witney Carson, Brittany Cherry, Kelsey Pino

 They returned for Season 15's Spotlight on Utah Talent led by Mark & Chelsie with:
  • Landon Anderson, Brandon Armstrong, Nick Bloxom Carter, Marcquet Hill, Ruger Memmott
  • Jensen Arnold, Tanisha Belnap, Brittany Cherry, Brooklyn Fullmer, Jenna Johnson
  • Tanisha also appeared in Season 11's Toxic Duel with Mark, Val, & Lacey ➤

Meanwhile...

  • Kiril Kulish performed on Broadway as Billy Elliot in 2008-09
    - TV preview with ballroom mention:  CBS Sunday ➤
  • Paul Karmiryan won 2011 So You Think You Can Dance Armenia
    - Born mid-'91, but strongly associated with the '94 cohort
    - Armenian TV clips:  Samba ➤  - Winner announced ➤

'94 Dancesport Cohort in Youth Competition

     Video forthcoming...

So You Think You Can Dance USA

...has featured several Utah and DWTS dancers, especially since 2012:

DWTS Troupe Reunions

  • Lindsay, Witney, Jenna, Alan, & Brandon have been DWTS Pros
  • Brittany, Vlad, & Kiril have been DWTS Troupe
  • Season 16 New Pros & Troupe - with Lindsay & Witney
  • Season 20 Troupe bumper - Lindsay, Jenna, Brittany (and guest Cheyenne Murillo of their Utah generation):
  • Season 22 Troupe bumper - with Jenna, Alan, & Kiril
  • Season 24 Troupe - with Alan, Brittany, Brandon (and SYTYCD alum Hayley Erbert):
  • Season 27 Troupe - with Vlad Kvartin

Additional '94 Cohort Featured on DWTS

  • Season 7 Junior Competition featuring:
    • Craig Abaya-campos & Samantha Abaya-campos (overall winners, Season 6 Cara's siblings) - Finals ➤
    • Also: Anthony Kinevsky & Alisa Gerstein; Kirill Skipalskiy & Hanna Sverdlov; Mitchell Itkin & Jessica Dubizansky; Mitchell Leyzerzon & Maria Khasminsky; Simon Orlovsky & Lucy Chibukhchyan
  • DWTS Ballroom Battle 2011-12 web-based series:
    • Finals ➤ - Live ABC Results
      • Ron Garber & Ashley Goldman, Allen Genkin & Alla Kocherga (overall winners), Phillip Kudryavtsev & Elizabeth Satarov
    • Semi-Finals -
      • Brandon & Lindsay, Daniel Gonzalez & Brittany Cherry - video ➤, Brandon Segovia & Serena Pav
    • Earlier rounds -
    • Note: I did not find video of the Tony vs Lacey nor Mark vs Louis battles.

Live to Dance

It would be remiss to not mention The Vibe's 2011 appearance on Paula Abdul's Live to Dance.  Especially when two Finalists were ballroom-related, including the winners:

World of Dance

    D'Angelo and Amanda have also appeared on World of Dance, as has his sister Ruby with partner Jonas.  Both are later generation than the '94 cohort.  To date, the only '94 Dancesport cohort on WOD has been Daniella Karagach (born '92, Dec. 26) with husband Pasha Pashkov:

    Pasha technically belongs to a strong '85-'86 cohort of Dance TV ballroom males with Derek Hough, Mark Ballas, Val Chmerkovskiy, and Denys Drozyduk.  Note that Derek is a judge on World of Dance and Denys has appeared on WOD with wife Antonina.

    Other Appearances

      Cheyenne appeared on PBS' America's Ballroom Challenge ➤ with her current pro partner.

        The Next Generation

        • D'Angelo & Amanda represent a younger generation of dancers, best covered in a (possibly future) separate post.
        • An even younger generation features in the 2018 DWTS Junior edition.

        Related Posts

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        Monday, April 30, 2018

        DWTS Season 26 - Historical Comparisons

        These analyses are not meant to be predictive.  They are merely an assessment of relative strength based on historical comparisons.  Season 26 departs from past seasons in a number of respects, including new Week 1 voting protocols and greater similarity of contestants (i.e. all athletes), that decrease the reliability of historical results.  Nevertheless, this may be an interesting analytical exercise....

        The following analysis is similar to previous season analyses, but with adjustments to reflect the shorter all-Athletes edition.  Athletes were re-categorized into five groups:
        1. Artistic (e.g. figure skating, gymnastics), 
        2. Combat (e.g. boxing, wrestling, mixed martial arts)
        3. Court (e.g. basketball, tennis)
        4. Team / Field (e.g. football, baseball, softball, soccer)
        5. Individual (e.g. swimming, track & field, snow boarding)
        Athlete-age comparison groups are listed below for each star.  The age ranges are typically the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted).  Past season results are re-scaled from 1-10 (representing 1st place through 10th place) so that results are comparable across seasons, and consistent with the Season 26 Athletes field size.  Withdrawals are excluded, but All-Star season results are included.

        The comparison groups are listed from strongest average to weakest average.  (Scroll down to view all groups):

        Notes: Age range was adjusted for Jennie, Tonya, Jamie, Arike, and Kareem to compensate for insufficient comparisons. Job category was broadened for Arike to compensate for insufficient comparisons.  A trimmed mean (tossing highest and lowest result) was used for Josh, to compensate for notable outliers.

        Here's a summary of the above age-job group averages, arranged in ascending clusters of average placement.  (Red text indicates adjusted averages, as noted above):



        Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest.  (Red text indicates average placement for 2nd season female or male pros from seasons 4-25.  Female pros have generally done quite well in their 2nd seasons.):



        Next are the height group averages, for same gender height +/- 1 inch.  (Height range expanded to >76 inches for Kareem, to compensate for insufficient data.)



        Next are the overall weighted averages*.  They are arranged in clusters of average placement, from strongest to weakest.

        *Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.

        Comments:
        First, a reminder that these are not predictions, especially not for this short all-athletes season.  That said, based on historical comparisons, stars within the same cluster are likely most competitive with each other relative to the field.

        Also, stars are most likely to finish within one cluster of their historically-based clustering than further away.  This was true for Season 24, and true for all but one for Season 25.  Based on a personal unpublished review of previous season analyses, an average of one star per season (0, 1, or 2) finishes further away.

        Based on historical comparisons, it would be less likely that athletes in the top cluster finish lower than 6th place, or that athletes in the 3rd cluster finish higher than 5th place.  Athletes in the middle cluster can finish anywhere and remain within one cluster.
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        Monday, September 18, 2017

        Alternative Season 25 Clustering

        So, I've been doing these historical analyses since season 16, but season 25 has seen a big jump in views.  For that reason, I want to reemphasize that these are not meant to be predictions, and to share a bit more analysis.

        One challenge in these data analyses is identifying a comparable group.  Back when I started these analyses, I chose to split combat, basketball, and tennis athletes ("CBT") from other athletes, because they had done poorly through the first 15 seasons.  That means that Monica Seles is still in Nikki Bella's comparison group.  It was tempting to drop Monica from that group.  Instead, I broadened the age range to include Paige VanZant, despite her being over a decade younger than Nikki.  Had I dropped Monica instead, the final clusters would have been:


        Notice that Nikki's historical average would have filled a gap between Nick and Terrell, pushing both Nikki and Terrell up into Cluster 2, and collapsing Clusters 3 and 4 into one Cluster 3.  A "within-one" interpretation of these clusters would yield more conservative results, broadening the "likely" range for all couples.  However, three clusters are a lot less interesting than four clusters, because the middle cluster can literally place anywhere and stay within one cluster.  That was partly why I went with the more interesting four clusters.

        My plan was to see how this season played out before deciding whether the "athlete" category should be re-categorized for future analyses.  Given the unexpectedly high view total, I wanted to share this information now.  Again, these results aren't meant to be predictive, but they can be interesting and insightful for what's historically more or less likely.
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        Saturday, September 16, 2017

        DWTS Season 25 - Historical Comparisons


        First, a preview / graphical summary of the ensuing DWTS Season 25 historically-based analysis:

        Note: See link for an alternative clustering.

        This Season 25 analysis is similar to the Season 24 analysis.  These analyses are not meant to be predictive.  They are merely an assessment of relative strength based on historical comparisons.  Job-age comparison groups for each star are listed below.  The "job" categories come from the defunct "Cast DWTS" game formerly on ABC's website.  The age ranges are typically the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted).  Past season results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st place through 12th place) so that results are comparable regardless of field size.  Withdrawals and All-Star season results are excluded.

        The comparison groups are listed from strongest average to weakest average.  (Scroll down to view all groups):

        Notes: Age range was adjusted for Lindsey, Jordan, Frankie, Nikki, Nick, Barbara, and Debbie because of excessive or insufficient comparison. Job categories were broadened for Drew and Barbara because of inadequate comparison.  "Singer" was the closest available category to "musician" for Lindsay, but that's admittedly a debatable point.

        Here's a summary of the above age-job group averages, arranged in ascending clusters of average placement:


        Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest.  (The average placement for new pros from seasons 4-25 is indicated in red):

        Next are the height group averages, for same gender height +/- 1 inch.  These are especially interesting for season 25, imho:


        Next are the overall weighted averages*.  They are arranged in clusters of average placement, from strongest to weakest.  Wildcards (highlighted in blue) are Victoria (physically challenged, but with an inspirational story) and Debbie (new pro).  EDIT: Marking Nikki as a wildcard, due to problematic comparison group (explained in addendum post).

        *Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.

        Comments:
        First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  That said, based on historical comparisons, stars within the same cluster are likely most competitive with each other relative to the field.  Also, stars are more likely to finish within one cluster of their historically-based clustering than to finish further away.  (This was true for the Season 24 analysis.)

        Based on historical comparisons, it would be less likely that stars in the top cluster finish lower than 7th; stars in the 2nd cluster finish lower than 10th; stars in the 3rd cluster finish higher than 4th; and stars in the bottom cluster finish higher than 8th.  (These results are summarized graphically in the figure topping this post.)  I'll leave it to the reader to predict their most likely "less likely" results.
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        Friday, August 4, 2017

        DanceSport Records - Recent TV Dancers

        (for recent SYTYCD / WOD ballroom and DWTS troupe dancers)


        Summaries of Dancesport competitions and U.S. Nationals results, per DanceSportInfo.net.  The database focus is International Latin/Standard.  Dancers' names link to profile pages and partner histories.  These profiles may include duplicate entries.  

        Database results are incomplete for some competitions (i.e. partial results), missing for others (e.g. 2013-14 US Amateur Nationals), or excluded (e.g. Pro-Ams, non-DanceSport circuits like American Rhythm/Smooth, or "other" social dance circuits like Cabaret, Salsa, or Swing).

         Juv-Jr combines juvenile and junior levels.  Youth+ combines youth and adult amateur levels.  (And pro levels where noted, but most recent TV dancers retired from Dancesport soon after aging out of Youth events.)  Ballroom/10 includes Ten Dance.  Abroad reflects international experience, including Blackpool and World Championships.

         Note: These are manual compilations as of August 2018.  Please contact me or comment below regarding errors or corrections you might find.

        DanceSportInfo.net Competition Summaries

        U.S. National Amateur Championships Summary

        Win = 1st place; Top 3 = 2nd or 3rd place; Fnl = made Finals;
        SF = semi-finals; QF = quarterfinals; R1 = Round 1 elimination

        U.S. National Amateur Titles - Latin / Standard

        >
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        Thursday, April 27, 2017

        DWTS Pro & Troupe Current Ages*

        *Notes
          Current ages and birth dates based on available Internet information
          Uncertain birth dates or ages in lighter print
          Current pros in bold
          Troupe in italics
          Info missing for Fabian Sanchez, Jesse DeSoto, Charlotte Jørgensen, Andrea Hale
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        Monday, March 20, 2017

        DWTS Season 24 - Historical Strength

        This Season 24 analysis is similar to last Season 23 analysis.  As those results demonstrate, these analyses are not meant to be predictive.  It's merely an assessment of historical strength.  (And there was plenty of defying history last season.

        Job-age comparison groups are composed for each star.  The "job" categories come from the defunct "Cast DWTS" game formerly on ABC's website.  The age range is usually the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted).  Each season's results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st place through 12th place) to make results comparable regardless of field size.  Withdrawals and All-Star season are excluded.

        The comparison groups are listed from strongest average to weakest average:


        Notes: Age range was broadened for Nancy, Charo, and Mr. T because of insufficient comparison. Job categories were broadened for Heather, David, Charo, Erika, and Mr. T because of inadequate comparison.

        Here's a tabular summary of the age-job group averages from the above spreadsheet, arranged in ascending clusters of comparable average placement:


        Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest:

        Finally, here are the overall weighted averages*, including heights.  They are arranged from strongest to weakest average placement, in clusters of comparable strength.  Wildcards (highlighted in blue) include David (first MLB player) and Nancy (first mid-aged female athlete). Also noteworthy is Bonner, this season's most inspirational story.  Averages based on just one or two comparisons are highlighted in red.


        *Technical Note:  The factors were weighted as follows: 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average.  These weights were based on correlation analysis between weighted historical averages and actual historical results.

        Comments:
        First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  Second, the averages worked out such that there are three evenly defined clusters.  I wouldn't be surprised to see any celebrity finish one cluster higher or lower than history suggests, but I would be surprised were one of the top four to land in the bottom four, or vise versa.  Third, I'm looking forward to how Rashad, Nancy, and Charo fare, given their pro partners' low historical averages versus similar celebrity types having fared better (see spreadsheet and first table above)..
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        Friday, October 14, 2016

        DWTS Season 23 - Historical Strength

        This Season 23 analysis is similar to last Season's 22 analysis.  First, job-age comparison groups are composed for each star.  The "job" categories come from the defunct "Cast Next Season's DWTS" game formerly on ABC's website.  The age range is the star's age +/- 5 years.

        Historical results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st place through 12th place) for each season to make all results comparable regardless of field size.  Withdrawals and All-Star results are excluded.  The comparison groups are listed from highest/strongest average to lowest/weakest average:



        Notes:  Age ranges were broadened for Laurie, Babyface, and Rick due to insufficient data.  Job categories were broadened for Amber and Terra due to inadequate comparison.  Height range was broadened for Terra due to insufficient data.

        Here's a tabular summary of the group averages from the above spreadsheet, arranged in ascending clusters of comparable strength:


        Here's a summary of Age-Job, Height, and Pro averages for each Season 22 star.  The count is the number of similar category comparisons.  Averages based on expanded category definitions (explained above) or limited pro experience are highlighted in red.


        Finally, here are the overall weighted averages*.  They are arranged from strongest to weakest average, in clusters of comparable strength.  Wildcards are highlighted in red, indicating that the corresponding averages are based on just one or two data points, making them less reliable than other averages. Also marked as a wildcard is Terra, who is difficult to compare to previous stars.



        *Technical Note:  The factors were weighted as follows: 50% Age-Job average, 30% Pro average, 20% Height average.  These weights were based on correlation analysis between weighted historical averages and actual historical results.

        Personal Comments:
        First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  Considering that all 12 stars fall within a range of approximately 4th-to-9th place, this is inevitable.

        This post was published midway through the season after the first four eliminations.  The first eliminated, Jake, way under-performed previous young actors in his age group.  OTOH, Rick, Babyface, and Vanilla were eliminated in relative order of their historical weakness with respect to the season 23 field.
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        Tuesday, March 22, 2016

        DWTS Season 21 Pre-Season Assessment - A Belated Post

        I never posted these last year, but for anyone interested, these were the pre-Season 21 comparison groups.  Note that sometimes height was taken into account in selecting the comparison groups.



        Skipping to the end, here is the final summary of weighted averages*, from strongest to weakest.  (Unreliable results based on limited data are highlighted in red.)


        *The weights were 58.3% Age-Job average, 33.3% Pro Average, and 8.3% Height average.  The contribution of height average was minimized because height was partly included in the selection of Age-Job groups.
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        Monday, March 21, 2016

        DWTS Season 22 - Historical Strength

        This analysis is similar to those in previous posts, but more data-driven.  Previously, comparison groups for each star have been hand-tailored around general rules for age and job comparisons.  (For anyone interested, here's a belated pre-Season 21 analysis that includes height in the selection of Age-Job comparison groups.)  As we approach 20+ seasons of usable data, fewer adjustments are needed to compensate for insufficient data.

        We'll start with the Season 22 comparison groups for each star.  The "job" categories are borrowed from the defunct "Cast Next Season's Stars" game that used to appear on ABC's website.  The age range is the star's age +/- 5 years.  (Note that a one-year age difference results in slightly different comparison groups for Antonio and Von.)

        Historical results were converted to a scale from 1-12, representing 1st place through 12th place in a standard-size DWTS field.  Withdrawals and All-Star results are excluded from this analysis.
        The comparison groups are listed from best/highest/strongest average to worst/lowest/weakest average:



        Notes:  Age ranges were broadened for Paige, Geraldo, and Marla due to insufficient data.  Wanya's age range was broadened because Master P / Billy Ray Cyrus / RedFoo doesn't seem like a fair comparison for anyone.  (But I thought the same for RedFoo with respect to P and Cyrus, who turned out to be fair comparisons after all.)  Job categories were broadened for Geraldo due to insufficient data, and for Nyle, due to insufficient data and inadequate comparison.

        Before proceeding, here's a tabular summary of the group averages from the above spreadsheet, arranged in ascending clusters of comparable strength:


        Next is a summary of Age-Job, Height, and Pro averages for each Season 22 star.  The count is the number of comparison data used to calculate the group average.  For Age-Job, these match the spreadsheet above.  Averages based on expanded Age-Job definitions (as discussed above) or limited pro partners are highlighted in red.



        Finally, here are the overall weighted averages*.  They are arranged from strongest to weakest average, in clusters of comparable strength.  Wildcards are highlighted in red, indicating that the corresponding averages are based on just one or two data points, making them less reliable than other averages. Also marked as wildcards are Keo, whose first 2 or 3 seasons were probably in lieu of troupe, and Nyle, who is difficult to compare to previous stars within the limit of this analysis.



        *Technical Note:  The factors were weighted as follows: 50% Age-Job average, 30% Pro average, 20% Height average.  These weights were based on correlation analysis between weighted historical averages and actual historical results.

        Personal Comments:

        First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  Considering that all 12 stars fall within a range of 4.5 to 7.9, i.e. within 4th-5th place to 8th place, this truly is inevitable.

        For me, the most interesting part of these analyses are the potential surprises.  Young actresses in Mischa's age range have done well in the past.  Her historical average looks surprisingly high, while actresses in Jodie's age range have averaged a bit lower, and she is further dragged down by Keo's poor results.  Offhand, I would guess that Jodie and Keo are a better bet for beating their historical 8th place than Mischa and Artem are for matching their historical 5th place, but it may be a closer battle than many expect.  Another good bet to beat their average may be Wanya and Lindsay, who seem popular in pre-season fan discussions.

        Two final comments:  Although Paige's historical strength isn't necessarily a surprise, her partner Mark has his own history of surprise eliminations--well known to DWTS fans--that seems worth mentioning.  (Hopefully they'll avoid that fate.)  Finally, whatever Nyle achieves as DWTS' first fully deaf star will be unprecedented.  At some point, I may include a "human interest" factor in these analyses.  Without such numbers, I'll simply acknowledge a general consensus among fans that "human interest" can generate votes leading to better-than-expected results.
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        Monday, March 23, 2015

        DWTS Season 20 Assessment of Historical Strength

        The following is a historically-based analysis of the competitive strength of Dancing with the Stars Season 20 celebrities.  This is not meant as a prediction, but as a simple statistical assessment for anyone interested in statistics.  I am posting just the comparison groups and overall results.  The analysis is similar to what I have posted for past seasons, with changes noted.

        First, here's the Excel spreadsheet showing the historical comparison group for each Season 20 celebrity. The group headings explain how the groups were defined.  Red text indicates discretionary inclusion of celebrities who do not fit the group definition, but are otherwise comparable.  Red can also indicate guesstimated data, wherever necessary.  The groups are listed from strongest (highest average historical results) to weakest (lowest average historical results):



        Now here is a summary of the the Age-Job historical averages, clustered by comparable historical strength, from strongest to weakest.


        Usually, I would present height and pro data separately, but I'll skip to the final assessment.  The height and pro data are included here.  Red text indicates pro averages based on fewer than three official results (bearing in mind that Emma's 2nd partner withdrew).  These newer pro averages are less meaningful than more established pro averages.  *Technical note: The factor weighting has changed to de-emphasize height, as explained below.


        Personal comment:  I'll repeat my usual point that this historical analysis is not meant to be a prediction.  Nevertheless, these results look similar to many predictions I've seen.  The one pre-season surprise for me was realizing that at 39, Emma's "young" partner RedFoo is neither historically young, nor relatively young among Season 20 males.  Also, I think the relative results between Riker and Chris could depend heavily on their still unproven partners.

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        *Please note that height was also included in the definition of some comparison groups.  For example, I limited young female athletes to those within 5 inches of Nastia's height.  This fine-tuning of comparison groups becomes increasingly possible as more data becomes available across more seasons.  Consequently the weighting of height was de-emphasized from past season analyses.  The new weighting is:  (1.75*Age-JobAvg + ProAvg + 0.25*HtAvg) / 3.
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