Retrospective: DWTS Season 27 - Historical Comparisons

The results of Season 27 on Dancing with the Stars were unexpected in many ways, but not without historical precedence. In a preseason 27 analysis, I included the following note:

"Please note that this chart displays automatic clustering by average round placement."

I included that note because the clustering method was different than previously posted analyses. Previously, I had clustered groups based on spacing between overall averages, while avoiding single-entry clusters. Had the season 27 analysis been clustered as previously, there would have been three clusters, with a middle cluster of six contestants (Mary Lou Retton through Bobby Bones).

Three clusters are generally less interesting from an interpretive standpoint than four or five clusters. Large middle clusters are less interesting still. In this example, six of 13 contestants would have finished within one historical cluster no matter where they placed. The only "interesting" result would have been Nancy McKeon being eliminated much earlier than history would suggest.

Automatic clustering by rounding to the nearest whole placement produced a more interesting visual chart, but obscured the close spacing among the middle averages. In particular, Bobby Bones' historical average was within 1.0 placement of seven other contestants. The historical overreach of his (and Sharna's) final placement was primarily with respect to the top cluster of DeMarcus, Juan Pablo, and Nancy (and their respective partners).

The upside of the automatic clustering was that the apparent display of deviations from historical patterns matched public perceptions. The outcry over the season 27 results indicated that those results at least appeared unexpected and interesting, even if historically they were arguably less so.