After 15 non-allstar seasons, there is enough DWTS data to compare new contestants to past contestants with regard to job and age. A previous blog entry broke down the performance of nine job categories into young, middle, and senior age groups. Here, we look at the Season 17 field of contestants, first by the age-job groups, and then by their overall projected average of historical age-job, height, and pro performance. The goal here is not prediction, but assessment of relative strength and weakness.
The Excel table below shows the historical averages of Age-Job groups for the twelve Season 17 DWTS contestants. ("Historical average" refers to the average final placement after adjusting results to a standard field of 12 contestants.) Note: Scroll down to see more data.
Overall Projections for Season 17 Contestants
Combining the Age-Job historical averages from above with historical height and pro averages, we can project an overall average for each current contestant. For this assessment, height averages are based on the historical results of previous contestants of the same gender who were within one inch of the current contestant's height. Pro averages are based on the average historical result for each pro. (Historical results are adjusted to a standard field size of 12 contestants.)
Here are the results, clustered into three groups from relatively strongest to relatively weakest contestants (in a historical sense). **Additional notes are explained at the end of this blog.
Observations
Emphasizing again that this is not a prediction, but an assessment of relative strength and weakness, here are a few personal observations. I find the lone senior male Other-TV comparison for Bill Nye, namely Jerry Springer, to look very appropriate. I don't think Nye will last as long as Springer, but there are definite fanbase similarities there.
Looking at the 40-somethings, we see both Berkley's and Remini's projected average being seriously depressed by how poorly other 40's actresses have done. From the Age-Job groups, Remini appears more like her cohorts in shared background than does Berkley, imho. The general expectation seems to be that Berkley's dance experience, combined with partner Val's recent success, will serve her well. However, both Remini and Berkley--and their partners--may face the hidden challenges that have hurt other females of their age group. I've often wondered if "busy Mom" syndrome hasn't hurt this group. If so, then the new practice schedule may prove beneficial.
For K. Johnson, being an athlete is still an advantage in his 40's, but he's not as advantaged as younger male athletes have been. Here, his average projects into the middle cluster, rather than the top cluster.
Finally, I'm heartened by the strong, middle averages for Valerie Harper and Jack Osbourne. Obviously, these historical averages are blind to their medical histories, but I do hope both can stick around awhile.
**Additional Notes
a) The overall averages are weighted so that Age-Job is 50% more important than Pro average, while Height average is 50% less important. The formula, based on historical correlations, is:
Overall weighted average = (1.5*Age-Job Average + 0.5*Height Average + Pro Average) / 3
b) The average for new pros is based on the average of the six 1st year pros in seasons 13 and 16.
c) The height average for Nicole is based on all females under 5', because of a lack of data for females her size.
d) The pro average for Val includes All-Stars, which is otherwise excluded from the data. This was a subjective call, based on post hoc results.
e) Where needed, age-job average is the first tie-breaker, and pro average is the second tie-breaker.
f) Withdrawals are not included in the historical averages, nor in the Age-Job groups.
