DWTS Season 26 - Historical Comparisons

These analyses are not meant to be predictive.  They are merely an assessment of relative strength based on historical comparisons.  Season 26 departs from past seasons in a number of respects, including new Week 1 voting protocols and greater similarity of contestants (i.e. all athletes), that decrease the reliability of historical results.  Nevertheless, this may be an interesting analytical exercise....

The following analysis is similar to previous season analyses, but with adjustments to reflect the shorter all-Athletes edition.  Athletes were re-categorized into five groups:

1. Artistic (e.g. figure skating, gymnastics), 
2. Combat (e.g. boxing, wrestling, mixed martial arts)
3. Court (e.g. basketball, tennis)
4. Team / Field (e.g. football, baseball, softball, soccer)
5. Individual (e.g. swimming, track & field, snow boarding)

Athlete-age comparison groups are listed below for each star.  The age ranges are typically the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted).  Past season results are re-scaled from 1-10 (representing 1st place through 10th place) so that results are comparable across seasons, and consistent with the Season 26 Athletes field size.  Withdrawals are excluded, but All-Star season results are included.

The comparison groups are listed from strongest average to weakest average.  (Scroll down to view all groups):

Notes: Age range was adjusted for Jennie, Tonya, Jamie, Arike, and Kareem to compensate for insufficient comparisons. Job category was broadened for Arike to compensate for insufficient comparisons.  A trimmed mean (tossing highest and lowest result) was used for Josh, to compensate for notable outliers.

Here's a summary of the above age-job group averages, arranged in ascending clusters of average placement.  (Red text indicates adjusted averages, as noted above):

Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest.  (Red text indicates average placement for 2nd season female or male pros from seasons 4-25.  Female pros have generally done quite well in their 2nd seasons.):

Next are the height group averages, for same gender height +/- 1 inch.  (Height range expanded to >76 inches for Kareem, to compensate for insufficient data.)

Next are the overall weighted averages*.  They are arranged in clusters of average placement, from strongest to weakest.

*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.

Comments:

First, a reminder that these are not predictions, especially not for this short all-athletes season.  That said, based on historical comparisons, stars within the same cluster are likely most competitive with each other relative to the field.

Also, stars are most likely to finish within one cluster of their historically-based clustering than further away.  This was true for Season 24, and true for all but one for Season 25.  Based on a personal unpublished review of previous season analyses, an average of one star per season (0, 1, or 2) finishes further away.

Based on historical comparisons, it would be less likely that athletes in the top cluster finish lower than 6th place, or that athletes in the 3rd cluster finish higher than 5th place.  Athletes in the middle cluster can finish anywhere and remain within one cluster.