Forecasting Star Age for Dancing's Newest Pros

Peta, Tristan, and Val have partnered three stars each since becoming pros on Season 13 of Dancing with the Stars.  Knowing the significance of star age, we can compare those triads to previous pros' and try to guess their future stars' age range.

Following are brief presentations of star age percentages, triad averages, and triad extremes, followed by "best guess" forecasts.

Overall Percentages of Younger and Older Stars

Here is how the new pros' current percentages of under- and over-40 stars rank against other pros who have partnered at least three stars:

For reference, the pros' average competition age is listed along with their average stars' age.  The bright yellow zone indicates pros with 80% or more stars under 40.  The dim gray zone indicates pros with 50% or less stars under 40.  The mid-range neutral zone falls between.  It appears that the bright zone is dominated by younger pros, while the gray zone is dominated by older and/or married pros.

Peta, who at 25-26 has been the second youngest pro in her three seasons, has consistently partnered under 40 stars.  Val, also 25-26, falls into the mid-range percentage of under 40 stars.  Tristan, a little older at 29-30, has yet to partner an under 40 star.

The numbers suggest that they will tend to stay in or near their current zones.  Eventually, Tristan should attain the 40%-50% range shown by other pros in the gray zone, but it may take awhile.  His closest comparison, Kym, stood at 25% after 8 partners.  Only recently has she gotten mostly under 40 partners.

Triad Comparisons

Overall percentages are useful for long-term projections, but we need more information to forecast star ages based on the first three, or triad, of stars.  To guess what may be ahead for the new pros, we can consider the progression of the veteran pros' triads in regard to average, minimum, and maximum star age.

Here are the pros' average star age across triads of stars.  They are listed in order of ascending 1st triad average:

The new pros are highlighted in blue and are listed among the veteran pros with multiple triads.  Additional pros with are listed separately.  Bright yellow indicates triad averages that were younger than the 1st triad by 5+ years.  Gray indicates triad averages that were older than the 1st triad by 5+ years.  Generally, pros either stay close to their 1st triad average, or get older star averages as they themselves get older.

This can be relative.  Mark's stars have gotten younger in later triads, probably because through 10 seasons, he remains the youngest male pro.  And pro roles can change.  Kym and Karina's bright "younger" triads coincide (season-wise) with Anna's gray "older" triad, suggesting that roles have shifted.

To date, Kym has the "brightest" decrease from a 1st triad average, her 4th triad being 10 years younger.  Maks has the "grayest" such increase, his 4th triad average being 15 years older than his 1st.  Generally, the brightest decreases from a 1st triad average have been about 5 years younger, and the grayest increases have been about 10 years older.

DWTS fans often are more interested in extremes like youngest and oldest than in averages.  Here are the pros' youngest star ages across triads, listed in order of ascending 1st triad minimum:

Bright yellow indicates a triad minimum 5+ years younger than the 1st triad minimum; and gray indicates a triad minimum 5+ years older than the 1st triad minimum.  Although the focus is on completed triads, significant minimums from incomplete triads are shown in italics.

Generally, pros' youngest stars remain consistent across triads.  Maks and Kym are misleading cases, who appear to have grayed across triads, because they had unusually young (for them) stars in their 1st triads.  Otherwise, Maks consistently has partnered the 30-and-over crowd, and Kym the 35-and-over crowd.  

Typically, the biggest changes are plus / minus 10 years from the 1st triad minimum, although there are exceptions.  For Derek, the 14 year decrease from 1st triad Shannon Elizabeth to would-be-4th triad Shawn Johnson represents the biggest drop in 1st-to-subsequent triad minimum, possibly due to the atypical All-Star season.

The biggest increase is 19 years for Anna:  Her 1st triad minimum was 22-year-old Albert Reed, and her 4th triad minimum was 41-year-old Carson Kressley, who was a replacement for 70-year-old Ryan O'Neal.  If not for that change, Anna's youngest 4th triad star would be have been 52-year-old Jack Wagner for an even more exceptional 30 year increase.

Now, here are the pros' oldest star ages across triads, listed in order of ascending 1st triad maximum:

Bright yellow and dim gray indicate maximums that respectively are 5+ years younger and older than their 1st triad maximums.  A pattern emerges here.  Pros with relatively younger "oldest" stars in their 1st triad tend tot get older "oldest" stars in their subsequent triads.  And pros with relatively older "oldest" stars in their 1st triad tend to get significantly younger "oldest" stars in their subsequent triads.

Typically, pros with 1st triad maximums under age 50 had either similar maximums in subsequent triads, or older maximums by around 15-20 years.  (Mark continues to be the exception, with a significantly younger 3rd triad maximum.)  Pros with 1st triad maximums over age 45 tend to have either similar maximums, or about 10 years younger maximums in subsequent triads.  (Note the overlap in Karina's and Anna's triads.)

The biggest decreases from 1st triad maximums are 16 years for Edyta, and 22 years for Kym.  They (and Tristan) had the oldest 1st triad maximums, so were likely to get "more typical" maximums in later triads.  The biggest increase on record is 26 years for Ashly, who returned in season 10 to partner 80-year-old Buzz Aldrin in an unusual circumstance.  Among the regular pros, the biggest increase was 23 years for Cheryl (from Drew Lachey to Wayne Newton).

Best Guess Forecasts

So what can we guess for the newest pros?

For Peta:  Her 1st triad numbers are most similar to veteran Derek's 1st triad numbers.  On that comparison, we can expect Peta to get mostly under 40 stars for as long as she is one of the youngest female pros.  Her future triad averages are likely to fall in the early 30's to early 40's range.  Like Derek (and Chelsie), an atypical triad maximum of mid 40's to mid 50's is possible.

For Val:  The closest 1st triad comparisons are Cheryl and Lacey.  If Val follows a similar trajectory, then his average star ages likely will fall into the mid 30's to mid 40's range, and his oldest stars in the late 50's to early 60's range.  Minimums are a little harder to forecast.  The Cheryl / Lacey pattern would suggest late 20's to early 30's.  But because Val and Mark currently are the youngest male pros, Val could be paired with someone younger.

For Tristan:  His closest comparisons are Kym and Edyta who likewise had 1st triad stars over age 60.  Unlike them, Tristan did not get an atypically young 30-year-old in his 1st triad.  We can guess that his future triads will be similar to Kym's and Edyta's, with the possibility of an atypically younger partner along the way.  That translates into 40-something averages, mid-to-late 30's minimums, and early 50's to early 60's maximums.  His 1st triad maximum is exceptional, however, and a drop of 20+ years off the maximum, like Kym's, is possible.

We should note that those atypical age pairings mentioned in the preceding paragraphs can result from celebrity requests (e.g. Maks-Kirstie, Cheryl-Rob), physical needs (e.g. Season 4 Kym-Joey), or thematic purpose (e.g. Anna-Evan right after his Olympic gold that was criticized by Russian officials).  Also, last minute partner scrambling has been rumored to result in atypical age pairings like Chelsie-Michael Bolton and the aforementioned Ashly-Buzz Aldrin.

Regarding any potential new pros introduced on Season 16:  The safest blind bet is that they will fall into the "neutral" zone of 50% to 80% stars under 40, with 1st triad profiles comparable to neutral zone pros like Maks / Karina / Lacey / Val / Cheryl / Louis.  That bet will be heavily affected by their relative age and height, however.  (I may post a follow-up after the pro lineup has been announced.)

Finally, a personal aside:  I have argued in various TWOP discussions that Val and Tristan are similar to Cheryl and Kym, respectively.  Numbers like the ones presented here are partly why I think that.  (Along with their personalities and their stars' personalities.)  However you feel about those comparisons, remember that both Cheryl and Kym have won MBT's.  :-)

How old is "old" for Dancing with the Stars?

Fans of Dancing with the Stars have become adept at handicapping a star's chances to win the Mirror Ball Trophy. Older celebrities are presumed to be disadvantaged, but how old is "older"? Would you believe 38? Several celebrities have won DWTS in their mid-thirties, but there's been a notable gap after 37. From youngest to oldest, the winners' ages have been:

It appears that mostly very young athletes, young performers, mid-30's athletes, and early 50's pop culture icons have dominated the winner's list. The age 37 cut-off could be a fluke. Possibly, a Kristi Yamaguchi or Donald Driver could have won in their 40's . However, it's not just winners, but finalists who have been dominated by the 37 and under crowd. The historical percentages through 15 seasons are:

The disproportionate success of young stars is apparent, comprising over 80% of all finalists. The struggles of older stars also is apparent, with a finalists rate (16%) about one-third their overall participation rate (46%).  While performance generally declines with age, further analysis shows that males and females decline differently. Rounded to the nearest full place, their average placements (normalized on a scale of 1st place to 12th place) are:

The similar 5th place average of young males and young females suggests that they can compete directly with each other. Males' results decline progressively with age. Surprisingly, middle-aged females struggle for placement as much as senior males, but senior females compare to middle-aged males. Conceivably, these middle- and senior-aged groups could benefit from competing with each other, under age-adjusted rules.

Why middle-aged females have struggled so dramatically is unclear. As stated previously, young Athletes in their mid-thirties have done well. That raises the question whether not just age, but an interaction of job and age affects performance. Considering the seven job categories of stars that ABC identifies in their online fantasy casting forum, here are the averages of the various groups' normalized (1 to 12) placements, with the number of corresponding stars in parentheses:

Averages have been rounded to the nearest half place. If we assume that young stars have the highest potential placement, then their performance sets a "baseline" for each job category. The jobs are listed from the best to worst average placement for young stars, with bright yellow indicating an average of 5th place or better, and light gray indicating an average of 8th place or worse. (Shading indicates a weak average based on just 1 or 2 stars, while dark gray indicates an absence of stars.)  Overall, Actors, Athletes, and Singers have the highest baseline potential.  Because we know that males and females age differently, we can parse the numbers by gender:

Several things stand out. First, there has been a lack of middle-aged and senior Reality stars. The youth baseline indicates that Reality stars do "OK", so maybe over-37 Reality stars would do "OK".

Second, as poorly as middle-aged actresses have generally placed, senior actresses have placed much better. The senior actresses include winner Jennifer Grey and one-time finalist Kirstie Alley, as well as Susan Lucci, Jane Seymour, Florence Henderson, and Cloris Leachman . Nostalgia may have helped these women, along with a bit of train-wreck humor in Leachman's case. Among the middle-aged actresses, Lisa Rinna, Marlee Matlin, and Melissa Gilbert are among those who have done OK. Tatum O'Neal, Denise Richards, and Shannen Doherty are among those who haven't. (And there's Pamela Anderson, who has and who hasn't.)  Why middle-aged actresses fare so much worse than young actresses--a group that includes Kelly Monaco, Jennie Garth, Marissa Jaret Winokur, Shannon Elizabeth, and Melissa Joan Hart--is unclear, especially given the relatively greater fame of the middle-aged group. Nevertheless, their struggles contribute to the overall lack of success for middle-aged females.

Third, there have been many over-37 Others, but not so many over-37 Athletes. Given the high baseline average of young Athletes, this factor could explain the drop-off in performance by over-37 stars, especially female stars. Both the Other and Athlete job categories have notable sub-groups worth separating. It's general knowledge that Basketball, Boxing, and Tennis (BBT) athletes have done notoriously worse than other athletes. (This could be due to center of balance issues related to height or defensive crouch positions.)  And while Others are generally not performers, there is a distinction between Others who work in front of TV cameras like hosts and reporters, and Others who don't. Here are the averages for these subgroups:

The overall strength of non-BBT Athletes becomes clear: non-BBT Athletes have the highest youth baseline average of any group. We further see that male athletes continue to do well in their 40's, though none have won and only Jerry Rice has made the Finals. The absence of middle-aged female Athletes could partially explain why their placements drop off significantly. Or like female Actors, they too might struggle in middle-age and recover as seniors. Hopefully, we'll have the opportunity to learn which is the case. For the Others job category, the influence of TV exposure appears to make a difference. Certainly, seniors Jerry Springer and Nancy Grace appeared to benefit from their fanbases. However, the super-high success of very young Other-TV females could result from Derek and Maks having partnered all three (Brooke Burke, Maria Menounos, Erin Andrews). Additional data is needed to see whether this group reliably yields exceptional results

Comments

Having seen the disparity between young stars versus middle-aged and senior stars, we can ask, "Can the playing field be leveled?" Drawing attention to the problem can start conversation about why the disparity exists. Campaigning for more middle-aged and senior Athletes might help, especially female Athletes. The same might go for Reality stars and possibly Others. Suggesting reasonable adjustments to scoring criteria for various age groups can address the root of the problem:  That of having such an age-varied mix of stars compete directly against each other in the first place. Ultimately, advocating for a separation of age groups might be the best solution. Defining individual seasons as Under-40 Stars or Over-40 Stars should create fairer competitions. (Or Under-/Over-39 , if the semantics make the demo-sensitive producers happier.)

Simply drawing attention to the problem may not be enough. At best, it might spur them to cast more Jennifer Grey, Osmond, Kirstie Alley types with mega-fanbases, leaving most over 37 stars at a continuing disadvantage.  At worst, it might unfortunately lead the producers to manipulate a PC winner to prove a point, and then revert to the usual youth-dominated format.  Lasting format changes are needed. If it turns out that there's not enough concern about age disparity on "Dancing with the Stars", then anyone who does care can simply choose to support the older stars they like and feel deserve their vote. After all, the only criteria for "best dancer" or "deserving winner" that any viewer is obligated to vote for is their own.

Update

The new Season 16 cast addresses some of the holes mentioned above.  Namely, we have a senior Reality star (Lisa Vanderpump) and a senior Female Athlete (Dorothy Hamill).  There also are no 30-something stars, which sets the season up as something of a lab experiment in terms of how very young teens and 20-something dancers are perceived by fans and judges, versus how middle aged and senior dancers are perceived.  Should be interesting.