DWTS Season 29 - Historical Placements

This Season 29 analysis assesses the relative strength of Dancing with the Stars contestants based on historical comparisons. It includes an additional factor to account for judges deciding the eliminations. Age and height are based on best available Internet data. Note that these results are not meant to be predictive.

Job-age comparison groups for each star are listed below. "Job" categories derive from ABC's defunct "Cast DWTS" website. Age ranges are the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted). Past seasons' results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st through 12th place) to make them comparable regardless of cast size. Withdrawals, All-Star, and Athletes seasons are excluded.

Comparison groups are listed from strongest to weakest average.  (Scroll to view all groups):

 


Here's a summary of the Age-Job group averages, in clusters of strongest to weakest historical average placement. Red print indicates averages based on limited or adjusted comparison groups.

Here are the Pro Averages, from strongest to weakest. Red print indicates averages based on limited pro histories. For new pros Daniella and Brit, the listed average is that of five female pro debuts within the last 12 seasons (Emma, Tyne, Witney, Allison, Jenna).

Next are the Height group averages. For each star, the historical average for same gender height +/- 1 inch is shown from highest to lowest average placement.

Next are the weighted overall averages*, arranged in clusters from strongest to weakest. The "Place" column shows rounded averages to better represent places 1-12.  Please note that this chart displays automatic clustering by average round placement.

*Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.

Finally, the historical averages can be adjusted to account for judges deciding eliminations. To factor forthcoming deliberations into the overall averages, scores from the first two weeks serve as proxies for judges' relative preferences. (Total scores were scaled 1.0 to 12.0 for 1st to 12th place.) The weighted averages are shown below, with clusters listed from highest to lowest average placement.

Nev and Jeannie (highlighted in blue) are considered wildcards. Jeannie, because of Brandon's limited history, and because she's less well-known or current than other celebs with unestablished pros (Johnny, Nelly, Carole). Nev, because his top cluster ranking is due primarily to judges' scores. The judges will likely save him over other celebs, but he himself is less well-known with an uncertain fanbase. Would the judges save him repeatedly if necessary?

*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 31% Age-Job average, 25% Pro average, 25% scaled Scores, 19% Height average.

Notes / Comments:

First, a reminder that these are not predictions. Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short. The general expectation of cluster analysis is that stars are most likely to finish within their relative clusters, less likely to finish +/- 1 cluster away, and least likely to finish more than 1 cluster away.