Monday, September 28, 2020

DWTS Season 29 - Historical Placements

This Season 29 analysis assesses the relative strength of Dancing with the Stars contestants based on historical comparisons. It includes an additional factor to account for judges deciding the eliminations. Age and height are based on best available Internet data. Note that these results are not meant to be predictive.

Job-age comparison groups for each star are listed below. "Job" categories derive from ABC's defunct "Cast DWTS" website. Age ranges are the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted). Past seasons' results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st through 12th place) to make them comparable regardless of cast size. Withdrawals, All-Star, and Athletes seasons are excluded.

Comparison groups are listed from strongest to weakest average.  (Scroll to view all groups):
 


Here's a summary of the Age-Job group averages, in clusters of strongest to weakest historical average placement. Red print indicates averages based on limited or adjusted comparison groups.




Here are the Pro Averages, from strongest to weakest. Red print indicates averages based on limited pro histories. For new pros Daniella and Brit, the listed average is that of five female pro debuts within the last 12 seasons (Emma, Tyne, Witney, Allison, Jenna).


Next are the Height group averages. For each star, the historical average for same gender height +/- 1 inch is shown from highest to lowest average placement.




Next are the weighted overall averages*, arranged in clusters from strongest to weakest. The "Place" column shows rounded averages to better represent places 1-12.  Please note that this chart displays automatic clustering by average round placement.

*Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.

Finally, the historical averages can be adjusted to account for judges deciding eliminations. To factor forthcoming deliberations into the overall averages, scores from the first two weeks serve as proxies for judges' relative preferences. (Total scores were scaled 1.0 to 12.0 for 1st to 12th place.) The weighted averages are shown below, with clusters listed from highest to lowest average placement.

Nev and Jeannie (highlighted in blue) are considered wildcards. Jeannie, because of Brandon's limited history, and because she's less well-known or current than other celebs with unestablished pros (Johnny, Nelly, Carole). Nev, because his top cluster ranking is due primarily to judges' scores. The judges will likely save him over other celebs, but he himself is less well-known with an uncertain fanbase. Would the judges save him repeatedly if necessary?

*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 31% Age-Job average, 25% Pro average, 25% scaled Scores, 19% Height average.

Notes / Comments:
First, a reminder that these are not predictions. Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short. The general expectation of cluster analysis is that stars are most likely to finish within their relative clusters, less likely to finish +/- 1 cluster away, and least likely to finish more than 1 cluster away.
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Monday, October 21, 2019

DWTS Season 28 - Historical Placements

This (belated) Season 28 analysis is meant to assess the relative strength of Dancing with the Stars contestants based on historical comparisons.It includes an additional factor to account for the new elimination procedure. Note that these are not meant to be predictive. Age and height are based on best available Internet data.

Job-age comparison groups for each star are listed below. "Job" categories derive from ABC's now defunct "Cast DWTS" website. Age ranges are typically the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted). Past seasons' results are scaled from 1-12 (to represent 1st through 12th place) so that they are comparable regardless of field size. Withdrawals, All-Star, and Athletes seasons are mostly excluded.

Comparison groups are listed from strongest to weakest average.  (Scroll to view all groups):


Notes: Age range was broadened for Mary, and age-job category broadened for Karamo and Sean, because of insufficient comparison..

Here's a summary of the age-job group averages, in clusters of strongest to weakest historical average placement. Red print indicates averages based on limited or adjusted comparison groups.



Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest. These averages include results from the Athletes season. Red print indicates averages based on limited pro histories. For new pro Pasha, the listed average is that of four male pro debuts within the last 10 seasons (Artem, Keo, Alan, Brandon).



Next are the height group averages. For each star, the historical average for same gender height +/- 1 inch is shown from highest to lowest average placement. Red text indicates guesstimated height for Sean, and +/- 3 inches to compensate insufficient comparisons for Lamar.


Next are the weighted overall averages*, arranged in clusters from strongest to weakest. The "Place" column shows rounded averages to better represent places 1-12.  Please note that this chart displays automatic clustering by average round placement. (A fuller consideration of automatic clustering can be found in this retrospective of Season 27 results.)

*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.


Finally, because season 28 introduced a new elimination process, I attempted to adjust these historical averages accordingly. To factor forthcoming judging deliberations into the overall averages, scores from the first two weeks are employed as proxies for judges' relative preferences. (Total scores were scaled 1.0 to 12.0 for 1st to 12th place.) The weighted averages are shown below, with clusters listed from highest to lowest average placement.

Kate and Mary (highlighted in blue) are considered wildcards because of their pros' limited histories.

*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 31% Age-Job average, 25% Pro average, 25% scaled Scores, 19% Height average.


Comments:
First, a reminder that these are not predictions. Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short. The general expectation of cluster analysis is that stars are most likely to finish within their relative clusters, less likely to finish +/- 1 cluster away, and least likely to finish more than 1 cluster away. With just three clusters, there should be relatively few surprises. As of this writing (heading into week 6 of the competition), the historical top cluster (historical top 4) has already avoided any possibility of finishing in the actual bottom cluster (actual bottom 3). Also, two of the historical bottom cluster have already been eliminated. At this point, the only historical deviation would be the remaining bottom cluster star placing in the top 4.
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Retrospective: DWTS Season 27 - Historical Comparisons

The results of Season 27 on Dancing with the Stars were unexpected in many ways, but not without historical precedence. In a preseason 27 analysis, I included the following note:

"Please note that this chart displays automatic clustering by average round placement."




I included that note because the clustering method was different than previously posted analyses. Previously, I had clustered groups based on spacing between overall averages, while avoiding single-entry clusters. Had the season 27 analysis been clustered as previously, there would have been three clusters, with a middle cluster of six contestants (Mary Lou Retton through Bobby Bones).

Three clusters are generally less interesting from an interpretive standpoint than four or five clusters. Large middle clusters are less interesting still. In this example, six of 13 contestants would have finished within one historical cluster no matter where they placed. The only "interesting" result would have been Nancy McKeon being eliminated much earlier than history would suggest.

Automatic clustering by rounding to the nearest whole placement produced a more interesting visual chart, but obscured the close spacing among the middle averages. In particular, Bobby Bones' historical average was within 1.0 placement of seven other contestants. The historical overreach of his (and Sharna's) final placement was primarily with respect to the top cluster of DeMarcus, Juan Pablo, and Nancy (and their respective partners).

The upside of the automatic clustering was that the apparent display of deviations from historical patterns matched public perceptions. The outcry over the season 27 results indicated that those results at least appeared unexpected and interesting, even if historically they were arguably less so.
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Monday, September 24, 2018

DWTS Season 27 - Historical Comparisons


This Season 27 analysis is similar to previous analyses meant to assess the relative strength of Dancing with the Stars contestants based on historical comparisons.  Note that these are not meant to be predictive.

Job-age comparison groups for each star are listed below.  "Job" categories derive from the defunct "Cast DWTS" game formerly on ABC's website.  Age ranges are typically the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted).  Past seasons' results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st place to 12th place) so that they are comparable regardless of field size.  Withdrawals, All-Star season, and Athletes season are excluded.

The comparison groups are listed from strongest average to weakest average.  (Scroll down to view all groups):


Notes: Age range was broadened for Nancy, Mary Lou, Bobby, Nikki, Alexis, and Danelle because of insufficient comparison. They were tightened for DeMarcus and Evanna because of excessive comparison.




Here's a summary of the above age-job group averages, arranged in ascending clusters of average placement.  Red print indicates averages based on limited or insufficient comparisons.  The "Place" column shows rounded averages that better represent places 1-12:



Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest.  The "Place" column shows rounded averages that better represent places 1-12.  Light print indicates substituted averages.  For 3rd season pros whose 2nd season was the abbreviated All Athletes, the substitute is the default expected average of 6.5.  For new pros, the substitute is the average result for same gender new pros from seasons 4-25.



Next are the height group averages, for same gender height +/- 1 inch.  (Guesstimated heights used for Joe and Bobby.)  The "Place" column shows rounded averages that better represent places 1-12:



Finally, here are the overall weighted* averages.  They are arranged in clusters of average placement, from strongest to weakest.  The "Place" column shows rounded averages that better represent places 1-12.  Please note that this chart displays automatic clustering by average round placement. 

Wildcards (highlighted in blue) are Danelle (physically challenged, but inspirational), Mary Lou and Nikki (insufficient age-job comparisons); and Tinashe, Alexis, Joe (newer pros). Personal note: Evanna with work-in-progress pro Keo might be considered wildcards.


*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.

Comments:
First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  That said, based on historical comparisons, stars within the same cluster tend to be most competitive with each other relative to the field.  Also, stars within one cluster tend to be more competitive with stars in adjacent clusters than with stars in further away clusters.  Those in the top cluster(s) are least likely to finish in the bottom cluster, and vice versa.
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Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Dance TV Generation - Ballroom / Latin

'94 Dancesport Cohort


 Dancing with the Stars, So You Think You Can Dance, Live to Dance, World of Dance...there's been no shortage of dance on TV this past decade.  This post reviews ballroom / Latin dancers born early-mid '90's (especially '93-'95) who began training pre-Dance TV, competed Junior & Youth age circuits during its rise and peak, and debuted on TV starting as kids.  The '94 Dancesport cohort bridged the preceding generation who unexpectedly benefited from TV; and subsequent generations who aspired to TV their entire dance lives.

'94 Dancesport Cohort in Junior Level 1

First, a preview: 2006 USA Nationals Junior I Finals (full results) with Brandon & Brittany (orange dress), Kiril & Natella (black dress w/ red bow), Cole & Anna (white shirt / pink dress), Austin & Liza (white shirt / blue dress), Landon & Vashti (tall blondes), Eugene & Meah (red dress). Most subsequently appeared on Dancing with the Stars or So You Think You Can Dance...




Early DWTS Appearances

Eugene & Meah were part of a 2007 Champion Kids Performance - video ➤
  • featuring Anthony Kinevsky & Natasha Shevchenko, Eugene Reznik & Solomeah Burstein, Jason Shmelnik & Helen Demetsky

Brandon & Brittany and Austin & Liza took part in the
2008 Season 6 Junior Competition - Good Morning America recap ➤
  • Austin Joson & Liza Lakovitsky - intro ➤
    • Prior appearance on PBS' America's Ballroom Challenge - video ➤
  • Brandon Armstrong & Brittany Cherry (overall winners) - intro ➤
    and final round:
  • also competed: Aaron Altman & Rashell Khalfin, Jaryd Farcon & Cara Abaya-campos, Aaron Krumer & Daniela Olevsky, Dmitriy Slobodskiy & Michelle Kaplansky
  • also scheduled: Kiril Kulish & Natella Devitskaya (did not appear)

'94 Dancesport Cohort in Junior Level 2

By 2009 Junior II Nationals (full results) there had been some re-partnering. Competitors include: Brandon & Lindsay, Vlad Kvartin & Maria, (white shirt / white dress), Austin & Gabriella (gold dress), and Landon & Vashti (tall ginger male).


Special DWTS Performances

Brandon and Brittany returned to DWTS in 2011 for a Season 10 
Mark Ballas Student Performance featuring:
  • Brandon Armstrong, Nick Bloxsom Carter, Brock Bodily, Tynan Hamilton, Trey Jackson
  • Lindsay Arnold, Tanisha Belnap, Witney Carson, Brittany Cherry, Kelsey Pino

 They returned for Season 15's Spotlight on Utah Talent led by Mark & Chelsie with:
  • Landon Anderson, Brandon Armstrong, Nick Bloxom Carter, Marcquet Hill, Ruger Memmott
  • Jensen Arnold, Tanisha Belnap, Brittany Cherry, Brooklyn Fullmer, Jenna Johnson
  • Tanisha also appeared in Season 11's Toxic Duel with Mark, Val, & Lacey ➤

Meanwhile...

  • Kiril Kulish performed on Broadway as Billy Elliot in 2008-09
    - TV preview with ballroom mention:  CBS Sunday ➤
  • Paul Karmiryan won 2011 So You Think You Can Dance Armenia
    - Born mid-'91, but strongly associated with the '94 cohort
    - Armenian TV clips:  Samba ➤  - Winner announced ➤

'94 Dancesport Cohort in Youth Competition

     Video forthcoming...

So You Think You Can Dance USA

...has featured several Utah and DWTS dancers, especially since 2012:

DWTS Troupe Reunions

  • Lindsay, Witney, Jenna, Alan, & Brandon have been DWTS Pros
  • Brittany, Vlad, & Kiril have been DWTS Troupe
  • Season 16 New Pros & Troupe - with Lindsay & Witney
  • Season 20 Troupe bumper - Lindsay, Jenna, Brittany (and guest Cheyenne Murillo of their Utah generation):
  • Season 22 Troupe bumper - with Jenna, Alan, & Kiril
  • Season 24 Troupe - with Alan, Brittany, Brandon (and SYTYCD alum Hayley Erbert):
  • Season 27 Troupe - with Vlad Kvartin

Additional '94 Cohort Featured on DWTS

  • Season 7 Junior Competition featuring:
    • Craig Abaya-campos & Samantha Abaya-campos (overall winners, Season 6 Cara's siblings) - Finals ➤
    • Also: Anthony Kinevsky & Alisa Gerstein; Kirill Skipalskiy & Hanna Sverdlov; Mitchell Itkin & Jessica Dubizansky; Mitchell Leyzerzon & Maria Khasminsky; Simon Orlovsky & Lucy Chibukhchyan
  • DWTS Ballroom Battle 2011-12 web-based series:
    • Finals ➤ - Live ABC Results
      • Ron Garber & Ashley Goldman, Allen Genkin & Alla Kocherga (overall winners), Phillip Kudryavtsev & Elizabeth Satarov
    • Semi-Finals -
      • Brandon & Lindsay, Daniel Gonzalez & Brittany Cherry - video ➤, Brandon Segovia & Serena Pav
    • Earlier rounds -
    • Note: I did not find video of the Tony vs Lacey nor Mark vs Louis battles.

Live to Dance

It would be remiss to not mention The Vibe's 2011 appearance on Paula Abdul's Live to Dance.  Especially when two Finalists were ballroom-related, including the winners:

World of Dance

    D'Angelo and Amanda have also appeared on World of Dance, as has his sister Ruby with partner Jonas.  Both are later generation than the '94 cohort.  To date, the only '94 Dancesport cohort on WOD has been Daniella Karagach (born '92, Dec. 26) with husband Pasha Pashkov:

    Pasha technically belongs to a strong '85-'86 cohort of Dance TV ballroom males with Derek Hough, Mark Ballas, Val Chmerkovskiy, and Denys Drozyduk.  Note that Derek is a judge on World of Dance and Denys has appeared on WOD with wife Antonina.

    Other Appearances

      Cheyenne appeared on PBS' America's Ballroom Challenge ➤ with her current pro partner.

        The Next Generation

        • D'Angelo & Amanda represent a younger generation of dancers, best covered in a (possibly future) separate post.
        • An even younger generation features in the 2018 DWTS Junior edition.

        Related Posts

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        Monday, April 30, 2018

        DWTS Season 26 - Historical Comparisons

        These analyses are not meant to be predictive.  They are merely an assessment of relative strength based on historical comparisons.  Season 26 departs from past seasons in a number of respects, including new Week 1 voting protocols and greater similarity of contestants (i.e. all athletes), that decrease the reliability of historical results.  Nevertheless, this may be an interesting analytical exercise....

        The following analysis is similar to previous season analyses, but with adjustments to reflect the shorter all-Athletes edition.  Athletes were re-categorized into five groups:
        1. Artistic (e.g. figure skating, gymnastics), 
        2. Combat (e.g. boxing, wrestling, mixed martial arts)
        3. Court (e.g. basketball, tennis)
        4. Team / Field (e.g. football, baseball, softball, soccer)
        5. Individual (e.g. swimming, track & field, snow boarding)
        Athlete-age comparison groups are listed below for each star.  The age ranges are typically the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted).  Past season results are re-scaled from 1-10 (representing 1st place through 10th place) so that results are comparable across seasons, and consistent with the Season 26 Athletes field size.  Withdrawals are excluded, but All-Star season results are included.

        The comparison groups are listed from strongest average to weakest average.  (Scroll down to view all groups):

        Notes: Age range was adjusted for Jennie, Tonya, Jamie, Arike, and Kareem to compensate for insufficient comparisons. Job category was broadened for Arike to compensate for insufficient comparisons.  A trimmed mean (tossing highest and lowest result) was used for Josh, to compensate for notable outliers.

        Here's a summary of the above age-job group averages, arranged in ascending clusters of average placement.  (Red text indicates adjusted averages, as noted above):



        Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest.  (Red text indicates average placement for 2nd season female or male pros from seasons 4-25.  Female pros have generally done quite well in their 2nd seasons.):



        Next are the height group averages, for same gender height +/- 1 inch.  (Height range expanded to >76 inches for Kareem, to compensate for insufficient data.)



        Next are the overall weighted averages*.  They are arranged in clusters of average placement, from strongest to weakest.

        *Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.

        Comments:
        First, a reminder that these are not predictions, especially not for this short all-athletes season.  That said, based on historical comparisons, stars within the same cluster are likely most competitive with each other relative to the field.

        Also, stars are most likely to finish within one cluster of their historically-based clustering than further away.  This was true for Season 24, and true for all but one for Season 25.  Based on a personal unpublished review of previous season analyses, an average of one star per season (0, 1, or 2) finishes further away.

        Based on historical comparisons, it would be less likely that athletes in the top cluster finish lower than 6th place, or that athletes in the 3rd cluster finish higher than 5th place.  Athletes in the middle cluster can finish anywhere and remain within one cluster.
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        Monday, September 18, 2017

        Alternative Season 25 Clustering

        So, I've been doing these historical analyses since season 16, but season 25 has seen a big jump in views.  For that reason, I want to reemphasize that these are not meant to be predictions, and to share a bit more analysis.

        One challenge in these data analyses is identifying a comparable group.  Back when I started these analyses, I chose to split combat, basketball, and tennis athletes ("CBT") from other athletes, because they had done poorly through the first 15 seasons.  That means that Monica Seles is still in Nikki Bella's comparison group.  It was tempting to drop Monica from that group.  Instead, I broadened the age range to include Paige VanZant, despite her being over a decade younger than Nikki.  Had I dropped Monica instead, the final clusters would have been:


        Notice that Nikki's historical average would have filled a gap between Nick and Terrell, pushing both Nikki and Terrell up into Cluster 2, and collapsing Clusters 3 and 4 into one Cluster 3.  A "within-one" interpretation of these clusters would yield more conservative results, broadening the "likely" range for all couples.  However, three clusters are a lot less interesting than four clusters, because the middle cluster can literally place anywhere and stay within one cluster.  That was partly why I went with the more interesting four clusters.

        My plan was to see how this season played out before deciding whether the "athlete" category should be re-categorized for future analyses.  Given the unexpectedly high view total, I wanted to share this information now.  Again, these results aren't meant to be predictive, but they can be interesting and insightful for what's historically more or less likely.
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