DWTS Season 25 - Historical Comparisons

First, a preview / graphical summary of the ensuing DWTS Season 25 historically-based analysis:

Note: See link for an alternative clustering.

This Season 25 analysis is similar to the Season 24 analysis.  These analyses are not meant to be predictive.  They are merely an assessment of relative strength based on historical comparisons.  Job-age comparison groups for each star are listed below.  The "job" categories come from the defunct "Cast DWTS" game formerly on ABC's website.  The age ranges are typically the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted).  Past season results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st place through 12th place) so that results are comparable regardless of field size.  Withdrawals and All-Star season results are excluded.

The comparison groups are listed from strongest average to weakest average.  (Scroll down to view all groups):

Notes: Age range was adjusted for Lindsey, Jordan, Frankie, Nikki, Nick, Barbara, and Debbie because of excessive or insufficient comparison. Job categories were broadened for Drew and Barbara because of inadequate comparison.  "Singer" was the closest available category to "musician" for Lindsay, but that's admittedly a debatable point.

Here's a summary of the above age-job group averages, arranged in ascending clusters of average placement:

Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest.  (The average placement for new pros from seasons 4-25 is indicated in red):

Next are the height group averages, for same gender height +/- 1 inch.  These are especially interesting for season 25, imho:

Next are the overall weighted averages*.  They are arranged in clusters of average placement, from strongest to weakest.  Wildcards (highlighted in blue) are Victoria (physically challenged, but with an inspirational story) and Debbie (new pro).  EDIT: Marking Nikki as a wildcard, due to problematic comparison group (explained in addendum post).

*Technical Note: Averages are weighted as 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average, based on correlation analysis of weighted historical averages versus actual historical results.

Comments:

First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  That said, based on historical comparisons, stars within the same cluster are likely most competitive with each other relative to the field.  Also, stars are more likely to finish within one cluster of their historically-based clustering than to finish further away.  (This was true for the Season 24 analysis.)

Based on historical comparisons, it would be less likely that stars in the top cluster finish lower than 7th; stars in the 2nd cluster finish lower than 10th; stars in the 3rd cluster finish higher than 4th; and stars in the bottom cluster finish higher than 8th.  (These results are summarized graphically in the figure topping this post.)  I'll leave it to the reader to predict their most likely "less likely" results.

DanceSport Records - Recent TV Dancers

(for recent SYTYCD / WOD ballroom and DWTS troupe dancers)

Summaries of Dancesport competitions and U.S. Nationals results, per DanceSportInfo.net.  The database focus is International Latin/Standard.  Dancers' names link to profile pages and partner histories.  These profiles may include duplicate entries.  

Database results are incomplete for some competitions (i.e. partial results), missing for others (e.g. 2013-14 US Amateur Nationals), or excluded (e.g. Pro-Ams, non-DanceSport circuits like American Rhythm/Smooth, or "other" social dance circuits like Cabaret, Salsa, or Swing).

Juv-Jr combines juvenile and junior levels.  Youth+ combines youth and adult amateur levels.  (And pro levels where noted, but most recent TV dancers retired from Dancesport soon after aging out of Youth events.)  Ballroom/10 includes Ten Dance.  Abroad reflects international experience, including Blackpool and World Championships.

Note: These are manual compilations as of August 2018.  Please contact me or comment below regarding errors or corrections you might find.

DanceSportInfo.net Competition Summaries

U.S. National Amateur Championships Summary

Win = 1st place; Top 3 = 2nd or 3rd place; Fnl = made Finals;
SF = semi-finals; QF = quarterfinals; R1 = Round 1 elimination

U.S. National Amateur Titles - Latin / Standard

>

DWTS Pro & Troupe Current Ages*

*Notes
  Current ages and birth dates based on available Internet information
  Uncertain birth dates or ages in lighter print
  Current pros in bold
  Troupe in italics
  Info missing for Fabian Sanchez, Jesse DeSoto, Charlotte Jørgensen, Andrea Hale

DWTS Season 24 - Historical Strength

This Season 24 analysis is similar to last Season 23 analysis.  As those results demonstrate, these analyses are not meant to be predictive.  It's merely an assessment of historical strength.  (And there was plenty of defying history last season.

Job-age comparison groups are composed for each star.  The "job" categories come from the defunct "Cast DWTS" game formerly on ABC's website.  The age range is usually the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted).  Each season's results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st place through 12th place) to make results comparable regardless of field size.  Withdrawals and All-Star season are excluded.

The comparison groups are listed from strongest average to weakest average:


Notes: Age range was broadened for Nancy, Charo, and Mr. T because of insufficient comparison. Job categories were broadened for Heather, David, Charo, Erika, and Mr. T because of inadequate comparison.

Here's a tabular summary of the age-job group averages from the above spreadsheet, arranged in ascending clusters of comparable average placement:

Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest:

Finally, here are the overall weighted averages*, including heights.  They are arranged from strongest to weakest average placement, in clusters of comparable strength.  Wildcards (highlighted in blue) include David (first MLB player) and Nancy (first mid-aged female athlete). Also noteworthy is Bonner, this season's most inspirational story.  Averages based on just one or two comparisons are highlighted in red.

*Technical Note:  The factors were weighted as follows: 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average.  These weights were based on correlation analysis between weighted historical averages and actual historical results.

Comments:
First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  Second, the averages worked out such that there are three evenly defined clusters.  I wouldn't be surprised to see any celebrity finish one cluster higher or lower than history suggests, but I would be surprised were one of the top four to land in the bottom four, or vise versa.  Third, I'm looking forward to how Rashad, Nancy, and Charo fare, given their pro partners' low historical averages versus similar celebrity types having fared better (see spreadsheet and first table above)..

DWTS Season 23 - Historical Strength

This Season 23 analysis is similar to last Season's 22 analysis.  First, job-age comparison groups are composed for each star.  The "job" categories come from the defunct "Cast Next Season's DWTS" game formerly on ABC's website.  The age range is the star's age +/- 5 years.

Historical results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st place through 12th place) for each season to make all results comparable regardless of field size.  Withdrawals and All-Star results are excluded.  The comparison groups are listed from highest/strongest average to lowest/weakest average:



Notes:  Age ranges were broadened for Laurie, Babyface, and Rick due to insufficient data.  Job categories were broadened for Amber and Terra due to inadequate comparison.  Height range was broadened for Terra due to insufficient data.

Here's a tabular summary of the group averages from the above spreadsheet, arranged in ascending clusters of comparable strength:

Here's a summary of Age-Job, Height, and Pro averages for each Season 22 star.  The count is the number of similar category comparisons.  Averages based on expanded category definitions (explained above) or limited pro experience are highlighted in red.

Finally, here are the overall weighted averages*.  They are arranged from strongest to weakest average, in clusters of comparable strength.  Wildcards are highlighted in red, indicating that the corresponding averages are based on just one or two data points, making them less reliable than other averages. Also marked as a wildcard is Terra, who is difficult to compare to previous stars.

*Technical Note:  The factors were weighted as follows: 50% Age-Job average, 30% Pro average, 20% Height average.  These weights were based on correlation analysis between weighted historical averages and actual historical results.

Personal Comments:
First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  Considering that all 12 stars fall within a range of approximately 4th-to-9th place, this is inevitable.

This post was published midway through the season after the first four eliminations.  The first eliminated, Jake, way under-performed previous young actors in his age group.  OTOH, Rick, Babyface, and Vanilla were eliminated in relative order of their historical weakness with respect to the season 23 field.

DWTS Season 21 Pre-Season Assessment - A Belated Post

I never posted these last year, but for anyone interested, these were the pre-Season 21 comparison groups.  Note that sometimes height was taken into account in selecting the comparison groups.



Skipping to the end, here is the final summary of weighted averages*, from strongest to weakest.  (Unreliable results based on limited data are highlighted in red.)

*The weights were 58.3% Age-Job average, 33.3% Pro Average, and 8.3% Height average.  The contribution of height average was minimized because height was partly included in the selection of Age-Job groups.

DWTS Season 22 - Historical Strength

This analysis is similar to those in previous posts, but more data-driven.  Previously, comparison groups for each star have been hand-tailored around general rules for age and job comparisons.  (For anyone interested, here's a belated pre-Season 21 analysis that includes height in the selection of Age-Job comparison groups.)  As we approach 20+ seasons of usable data, fewer adjustments are needed to compensate for insufficient data.

We'll start with the Season 22 comparison groups for each star.  The "job" categories are borrowed from the defunct "Cast Next Season's Stars" game that used to appear on ABC's website.  The age range is the star's age +/- 5 years.  (Note that a one-year age difference results in slightly different comparison groups for Antonio and Von.)

Historical results were converted to a scale from 1-12, representing 1st place through 12th place in a standard-size DWTS field.  Withdrawals and All-Star results are excluded from this analysis.
The comparison groups are listed from best/highest/strongest average to worst/lowest/weakest average:



Notes:  Age ranges were broadened for Paige, Geraldo, and Marla due to insufficient data.  Wanya's age range was broadened because Master P / Billy Ray Cyrus / RedFoo doesn't seem like a fair comparison for anyone.  (But I thought the same for RedFoo with respect to P and Cyrus, who turned out to be fair comparisons after all.)  Job categories were broadened for Geraldo due to insufficient data, and for Nyle, due to insufficient data and inadequate comparison.

Before proceeding, here's a tabular summary of the group averages from the above spreadsheet, arranged in ascending clusters of comparable strength:

Next is a summary of Age-Job, Height, and Pro averages for each Season 22 star.  The count is the number of comparison data used to calculate the group average.  For Age-Job, these match the spreadsheet above.  Averages based on expanded Age-Job definitions (as discussed above) or limited pro partners are highlighted in red.

Finally, here are the overall weighted averages*.  They are arranged from strongest to weakest average, in clusters of comparable strength.  Wildcards are highlighted in red, indicating that the corresponding averages are based on just one or two data points, making them less reliable than other averages. Also marked as wildcards are Keo, whose first 2 or 3 seasons were probably in lieu of troupe, and Nyle, who is difficult to compare to previous stars within the limit of this analysis.



*Technical Note:  The factors were weighted as follows: 50% Age-Job average, 30% Pro average, 20% Height average.  These weights were based on correlation analysis between weighted historical averages and actual historical results.

Personal Comments:

First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  Considering that all 12 stars fall within a range of 4.5 to 7.9, i.e. within 4th-5th place to 8th place, this truly is inevitable.

For me, the most interesting part of these analyses are the potential surprises.  Young actresses in Mischa's age range have done well in the past.  Her historical average looks surprisingly high, while actresses in Jodie's age range have averaged a bit lower, and she is further dragged down by Keo's poor results.  Offhand, I would guess that Jodie and Keo are a better bet for beating their historical 8th place than Mischa and Artem are for matching their historical 5th place, but it may be a closer battle than many expect.  Another good bet to beat their average may be Wanya and Lindsay, who seem popular in pre-season fan discussions.

Two final comments:  Although Paige's historical strength isn't necessarily a surprise, her partner Mark has his own history of surprise eliminations--well known to DWTS fans--that seems worth mentioning.  (Hopefully they'll avoid that fate.)  Finally, whatever Nyle achieves as DWTS' first fully deaf star will be unprecedented.  At some point, I may include a "human interest" factor in these analyses.  Without such numbers, I'll simply acknowledge a general consensus among fans that "human interest" can generate votes leading to better-than-expected results.