DWTS Season 24 - Historical Strength

This Season 24 analysis is similar to last Season 23 analysis.  As those results demonstrate, these analyses are not meant to be predictive.  It's merely an assessment of historical strength.  (And there was plenty of defying history last season.

Job-age comparison groups are composed for each star.  The "job" categories come from the defunct "Cast DWTS" game formerly on ABC's website.  The age range is usually the star's age +/- 5 years (with exceptions noted).  Each season's results are scaled from 1-12 (representing 1st place through 12th place) to make results comparable regardless of field size.  Withdrawals and All-Star season are excluded.

The comparison groups are listed from strongest average to weakest average:


Notes: Age range was broadened for Nancy, Charo, and Mr. T because of insufficient comparison. Job categories were broadened for Heather, David, Charo, Erika, and Mr. T because of inadequate comparison.

Here's a tabular summary of the age-job group averages from the above spreadsheet, arranged in ascending clusters of comparable average placement:

Here are the pro averages, from strongest to weakest:

Finally, here are the overall weighted averages*, including heights.  They are arranged from strongest to weakest average placement, in clusters of comparable strength.  Wildcards (highlighted in blue) include David (first MLB player) and Nancy (first mid-aged female athlete). Also noteworthy is Bonner, this season's most inspirational story.  Averages based on just one or two comparisons are highlighted in red.

*Technical Note:  The factors were weighted as follows: 50% Age-Job average, 33% Pro average, 17% Height average.  These weights were based on correlation analysis between weighted historical averages and actual historical results.

Comments:
First, a reminder that these are not predictions.  Inevitably, some stars will beat their historical averages and some will fall short.  Second, the averages worked out such that there are three evenly defined clusters.  I wouldn't be surprised to see any celebrity finish one cluster higher or lower than history suggests, but I would be surprised were one of the top four to land in the bottom four, or vise versa.  Third, I'm looking forward to how Rashad, Nancy, and Charo fare, given their pro partners' low historical averages versus similar celebrity types having fared better (see spreadsheet and first table above)..